Commercial Foreclosures are on the way

Today I toured several commercial properties in Miami. All were recently foreclosed on, or about to be foreclosed. Soon these foreclosed properties, or what I like to call them "value bombs" will be all over the place and apt. units that were 70K per unit in 2006 will be 25K. I continue to think the commercial real estate disaster and deflating rents will take a couple years to fully play out, similar to residential real estate....My timing has certainly been off, as I anticipated commercial real estate to fall MUCH MUCH QUICKER, however, I remain confident that what lies ahead will be ugly. I don't take any particular gratitude in the doom in gloom predictions (I would much rather be flippn properties at 40K a pop). Its just what I see, and in commercial real estate it ain't pretty!!!!!

Still hanging in there on SPY puts. Market showed some weakness today, but same old thing at end of the day. The market just doesn't want to go down. Jobs report should be interesting in the morning.

Everyone is Bullish

Cash for Clunkers, $8000 for first time homebuyers and stimulus, these are the programs that are driving this economy, and for good reason. However, my theory is 3 part:

1. When this stimulus runs out, our poor consumers won't be able to continue to spend.
2. We will be fighting the headwinds of a rising interest rate environment & our government will have MASSIVE amounts of debt.
3. Commercial Real Estate

I still believe its just a matter of time before we revisit lows, and this giddy bullish climate goes back to being bearish. But for the time being, my opionions haven't made me any money.

My Aug. puts aren't looking to hot, but I still have faith in the Oct's SPYS and am trying to add to position now, but so far haven't been filled. I think Oct. will be just enough time for the weakness to creep back into the market.

Shorts

Added to shorts today, and purchased some Aug. SPY puts in addition to the Oct. SPY puts I already own. Obviously, with the Aug. puts I am looking for a pullback very soon. I purchased the 97's at 1.98. In a perfect world I would like to see a nice pullback to the 950 area and will sell the AUG. puts, and let the Oct's run.

BACK IN

Back in the market, and back short. Bought SPY OCT 92 PUTS at 2.62. There are no more bears in this market, and I think its a good time to get back in. Just shaking off the rust a bit here....

Close to coming back in

I am getting very close to opening up new short positions....I would love to see a big up 100+ day tomorrow or Friday, so I could buy some puts going into the weekend.

To me stocks have come to far to fast, and the bears are no where to be found (for good reason). I do think there are still serious headwinds facing our economy, its just a matter of time until they materialize and the market accounts for them.

950ish

I will likely get back into the market and will shorting as we get closer to 950 on the s&p. I think we may break above 950 if earnings are strong, so I will watch that area closely before doing anything.

TIME

I am still out of the market as it continues to screw around around 900-950. It's just a matter of time until the roll over is complete. I think we will get another bounce or two into the mid 900's before the eventual collapse, but that could easily be in the fall or even the end of the year. Another bounce up to 950 range, and I will likely step back in and short the market.