WOW! what a week. The bulls, if there are any left, are heading into the weekend dejected and depressed. We busted below S&P support of 740 and held, and the DOW is threatening 7000. It's amazing that sometime next week our illustrious DOW may start with a 6, when only a year and half ago, we were soaring to 14,000.
Being bearish has been great recently, and I am excited for March.
Just a quick update on my positions, I purchased QQQQ puts today, IBB calls today, and USO puts today. Notice the right column with my positions is updated and accurate. The only position I sold today was TRLG to close out the full position.
I'm exhausted and headed to the pool to read and hopefully nap! I will do a full review of all my positions over the weekend...
Friday, February 27, 2009
Update
Well, I learned from my mistake yesterday, and closed out the other half of my TRLG puts at the best price of the day so far. I am completely out of this position, and it was a very good trade.
I just bought some puts on oil, via the USO. I have been torn to pieces in commodities, namely gold and oil, but I am going to give it another go here....
I am trying to reenter a QQQQ put position, but so far haven't been filled.
AZO is back to its beastly performance, which is worrisome considering earnings are right around the corner, and FNF is putting up a battle to hold 17.
I actually decided to get a little BULLISH!!
That's right!! I currently have an order in to go long calls in the IBB. This is the etf for biotech which has been destroyed the past 3 weeks. I just missed getting filled by .10 earlier, so lets see if i will get filled before the end of the day.
I just bought some puts on oil, via the USO. I have been torn to pieces in commodities, namely gold and oil, but I am going to give it another go here....
I am trying to reenter a QQQQ put position, but so far haven't been filled.
AZO is back to its beastly performance, which is worrisome considering earnings are right around the corner, and FNF is putting up a battle to hold 17.
I actually decided to get a little BULLISH!!
That's right!! I currently have an order in to go long calls in the IBB. This is the etf for biotech which has been destroyed the past 3 weeks. I just missed getting filled by .10 earlier, so lets see if i will get filled before the end of the day.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Great Day
Today was one of my best days as a trader.
Everything went right today. I hope my good fortune will continue tomorrow...
Position Update
I sold 2/3 of my AET position for a nice profit. I am going to let the rest ride because these are April Puts.
I really missed a great opportunity in TRLG this morning, and my paper profit went from amazing, to pretty good. I will wait and see how the day ends, but that hard bounce at 10.50 really killed a lot of the profit for me. Hopefully TRLG will revisit its low of the day before the close.
On another note, FNF, which hasn't been doing much lately, is looking increasingly weak to me the past couple days. I still need that close below 17 to tell me it's headed lower.
I added to my KRE puts this morning, and I will continue to add to this position on any strength. KRE is currently up about 20% in the past couple days, and I anticipate this one revisiting its lows in the next couple days....I still don't trust the banks, and will continue to bet against them.
My QQQQ puts are treading water, and I have been increasing my position size as the day has progressed. I need a nice drop in the NASDAQ going into the close to make this a profitable position. (it looks like i may be getting this move right now!!)
I really missed a great opportunity in TRLG this morning, and my paper profit went from amazing, to pretty good. I will wait and see how the day ends, but that hard bounce at 10.50 really killed a lot of the profit for me. Hopefully TRLG will revisit its low of the day before the close.
On another note, FNF, which hasn't been doing much lately, is looking increasingly weak to me the past couple days. I still need that close below 17 to tell me it's headed lower.
I added to my KRE puts this morning, and I will continue to add to this position on any strength. KRE is currently up about 20% in the past couple days, and I anticipate this one revisiting its lows in the next couple days....I still don't trust the banks, and will continue to bet against them.
My QQQQ puts are treading water, and I have been increasing my position size as the day has progressed. I need a nice drop in the NASDAQ going into the close to make this a profitable position. (it looks like i may be getting this move right now!!)
GREAT MORNING!!!
It's been a great morning, thanks to TRLG and AET. TRLG reported decent earnings, but their guidance was bad, and the stock tanked this morning. The stock was down 17% at one point this morning, and my puts are doing fantastic. I will likely close out this position later today.
Thank you AET!!! I doubled up my position recently, so this is also a great position. My post on Feb 18th I said, "the technicals tell me this one is headed to 25", the stock just reached 24.66.
If only all days were like this!!
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Calling all Shorts and Put Holders
Can you all please stop freaking out and covering on even the slightest rumor that Obama is about to speak. It's getting absolutely ridiculous!!!
More government announcments!
Trading has gone like this….
Short the actual horrible statistics in our economy. Cover on a government rumor. Short the actual horrible statistics in our economy. Cover on Obama speaking. Short the actual horrible statistics in our economy. Cover on the nomination of an individual to the cabinet. Short the actual horrible statistics in our economy. Cover on a rumor that all of our problems have been solved….
You get the point. Another government announcement, another short covering rally…My puts got sliced and diced this afternoon, but I haven’t sold anything. I also got filled on more CBRL puts, so I am carrying a large position.
Update
*I got filled on more AET puts on the last mini bounce. I am now carrying a pretty large position in April 30 Puts. My average price in is $3.63, currently trading at $4.45. I would like to ride this stock down to 25.
Position Update
I wanted to take some time and just update my current positions:
KRE puts – these are doing fine, currently up about 5%. Until I hear a clear plan from the Treasury on the banks, I will continue to hold and add to this position. I am definitely eager to see how these “stress tests” pan out…
AET puts – these are doing very well. The position is currently up 45%. I actually have in order in to double the position, but haven’t been filled as of yet. I will add to this position, if I get my price. I anticipate further weakness in this sector, as the government recently announced a lower than expected increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursements. (This exactly what happened in Japan during their lost decade). I also anticipate insurance premiums going down in the coming year, and will continue to stay short of the insurance sector….
CBRL puts - I got smashed in these, the position is currently down 40%. I actually put in an order today to double my position, as this stock is reaching some significant resistance overhead. So far I haven’t been filled.
IYR puts – These are doing very well, up 80%. They are March puts, so I need to sell these soon. I am trying to be patient because I see further weakness, but I definitely need to consider taking some profits.
FNF puts – This position is down 20%. However, this one is finally coming back to earth, and showing some real weakness after the horrible housing results earlier today. I anticipate this one has peaked out, just as the refinance activity has in the first quarter of 2009. I would love to see a close below 17!
AZO puts – I don’t like this position at all. I am currently down 14%, and the earnings on March 3rd are coming fast. I am undecided what to do with this position and need to come up with a plan quick!
TRLG – I bought these puts a few days ago, and am currently down 10%. Earnings are after the bell today, so 4:30 should be exciting!!!!
I have also done some day trading the past couple days and have had a couple good trades.....I recently added some QQQQ puts, and plan on holding these through the week.
KRE puts – these are doing fine, currently up about 5%. Until I hear a clear plan from the Treasury on the banks, I will continue to hold and add to this position. I am definitely eager to see how these “stress tests” pan out…
AET puts – these are doing very well. The position is currently up 45%. I actually have in order in to double the position, but haven’t been filled as of yet. I will add to this position, if I get my price. I anticipate further weakness in this sector, as the government recently announced a lower than expected increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursements. (This exactly what happened in Japan during their lost decade). I also anticipate insurance premiums going down in the coming year, and will continue to stay short of the insurance sector….
CBRL puts - I got smashed in these, the position is currently down 40%. I actually put in an order today to double my position, as this stock is reaching some significant resistance overhead. So far I haven’t been filled.
IYR puts – These are doing very well, up 80%. They are March puts, so I need to sell these soon. I am trying to be patient because I see further weakness, but I definitely need to consider taking some profits.
FNF puts – This position is down 20%. However, this one is finally coming back to earth, and showing some real weakness after the horrible housing results earlier today. I anticipate this one has peaked out, just as the refinance activity has in the first quarter of 2009. I would love to see a close below 17!
AZO puts – I don’t like this position at all. I am currently down 14%, and the earnings on March 3rd are coming fast. I am undecided what to do with this position and need to come up with a plan quick!
TRLG – I bought these puts a few days ago, and am currently down 10%. Earnings are after the bell today, so 4:30 should be exciting!!!!
I have also done some day trading the past couple days and have had a couple good trades.....I recently added some QQQQ puts, and plan on holding these through the week.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
CBRL - Bad call
Cracker Barrel reported and guided in line this morning, and its stock is currently up 10% in pre market. Not good for my puts. However, I still feel pretty comfortable with this position. The stock should open around 20 and there there is some decent resistance around 22 which i think it will have trouble getting above. I'm going to listen to the conference call at 11 to determine what to do with this position, if anything.
I own June puts, so I think there is still time for this stock to tank....
Monday, February 23, 2009
TRLG, True Religion Jeans
Today I listed to a webcast for TRLG, True Religion Jeans. A few statements shocked me:
1. Their jeans start at $172
2. Their “sweet spot” for jeans is $250-300.
3. Their data says their buyers want to be fashionable and they set themselves apart from others by buying higher grades of denim.
Not in this market. Check out these sales....
PUT TIME!!! This is a bit of a gamble because their earnings are on Wednesday, and there has been a lot of strength the past couple days, which would lead me to believe that someone must know something. I am going to take the other side though and take the risk of buying a few puts ahead of their earnings.
1. Their jeans start at $172
2. Their “sweet spot” for jeans is $250-300.
3. Their data says their buyers want to be fashionable and they set themselves apart from others by buying higher grades of denim.
Not in this market. Check out these sales....
PUT TIME!!! This is a bit of a gamble because their earnings are on Wednesday, and there has been a lot of strength the past couple days, which would lead me to believe that someone must know something. I am going to take the other side though and take the risk of buying a few puts ahead of their earnings.
Our elected officals at work
Corruption sucks. Another pathetic example of our elected officials at work. Do you still have faith that our government orchestrated bailouts, stimulus packages, etc. are going to work?
Trading ain't no picnic
Trading is tough. I want to take a look at my "crappy" qqqq put trade made on Friday as described in in my "good week, bad day" post last week.
I had accumulated a large position in QQQQ puts throughout the day as the market continued to trickle lower. I purchased puts at each red circle below, only to sell them at the high of the day (blue circle) when the market rocketed higher after the Whitehouse said it did not favor nationalizing the banking system.
Today as I write this the QQQQ is back to exactly where we were before the Whitehouse rumors on Friday afternoon (green circle), and is currently threatening to break lower.
So the point is, trading is tough. The market bounced so hard on Friday, that I was stopped out of my position for a big loss. Ok, so that is the story of a bad trade....
MOVING FORWARD (as you must in trading) AZO, after moving higher this morning looks pretty weak right now, and my IWM puts and KRE puts purchased during Friday's "Whitehouse" bounce are performing well.
My best position of the day is currently my AET puts. The stock is currently down 5%.
Strong Stocks & Strong Sectors in our Bear Market
I have had success buying puts on stocks that bounce in this bear market. The philosophy is simple, in our bear market, the trend is down. Every time there has been a bounce due to government rumors, stimulus packages, cabinet appointments, etc., while each may result in a temporary rise in the market, the market eventually ends up lower. I will continue to follow this plan. The philosophy has worked well for sectors mostly affected by the recession. Specifically, buying puts in IYR, commercial real estate, KRE, regional banks, and RTH, retailers, has been a great strategy. So, when AZO was moving toward its all time high, I thought it would be a good idea to purchase puts because I have seen so many stocks fail to break out to new highs in this bear market.
However, at the time of purchase, I failed to consider that there are stocks and sectors that are going to take advantage of this bear market, this recession. For instance, the education stocks have had a nice run up, and continue to move higher. And it seems that AZO, and other automotive parts companies, ORLY, AAP, and AN continue to benefit from the recession.
This week will be very important to determine whether AZO continues to soar to new highs, making my puts nearly worthless, or if it will fail to breakout. The past coupe days it has had a huge move up on heavy volume, telling me it has support, which is not good for my position.
Another stock I am thinking about shorting is GMCR. Similar to AZO, this stock has also enjoyed success in this market. And similar to AZO, GMCR seems to be at the top of its channel around 43.
From my experience thus far with AZO, I am going to be patient buying puts on GMCR. I will first see how AZO performs this week, and into earnings next week, before further shorting stocks like AZO, GMCR and other strong stocks within strong sectors in this bear market.
However, at the time of purchase, I failed to consider that there are stocks and sectors that are going to take advantage of this bear market, this recession. For instance, the education stocks have had a nice run up, and continue to move higher. And it seems that AZO, and other automotive parts companies, ORLY, AAP, and AN continue to benefit from the recession.
This week will be very important to determine whether AZO continues to soar to new highs, making my puts nearly worthless, or if it will fail to breakout. The past coupe days it has had a huge move up on heavy volume, telling me it has support, which is not good for my position.
Another stock I am thinking about shorting is GMCR. Similar to AZO, this stock has also enjoyed success in this market. And similar to AZO, GMCR seems to be at the top of its channel around 43.
From my experience thus far with AZO, I am going to be patient buying puts on GMCR. I will first see how AZO performs this week, and into earnings next week, before further shorting stocks like AZO, GMCR and other strong stocks within strong sectors in this bear market.
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