Commercial Foreclosures are on the way

Today I toured several commercial properties in Miami. All were recently foreclosed on, or about to be foreclosed. Soon these foreclosed properties, or what I like to call them "value bombs" will be all over the place and apt. units that were 70K per unit in 2006 will be 25K. I continue to think the commercial real estate disaster and deflating rents will take a couple years to fully play out, similar to residential real estate....My timing has certainly been off, as I anticipated commercial real estate to fall MUCH MUCH QUICKER, however, I remain confident that what lies ahead will be ugly. I don't take any particular gratitude in the doom in gloom predictions (I would much rather be flippn properties at 40K a pop). Its just what I see, and in commercial real estate it ain't pretty!!!!!

Still hanging in there on SPY puts. Market showed some weakness today, but same old thing at end of the day. The market just doesn't want to go down. Jobs report should be interesting in the morning.

Everyone is Bullish

Cash for Clunkers, $8000 for first time homebuyers and stimulus, these are the programs that are driving this economy, and for good reason. However, my theory is 3 part:

1. When this stimulus runs out, our poor consumers won't be able to continue to spend.
2. We will be fighting the headwinds of a rising interest rate environment & our government will have MASSIVE amounts of debt.
3. Commercial Real Estate

I still believe its just a matter of time before we revisit lows, and this giddy bullish climate goes back to being bearish. But for the time being, my opionions haven't made me any money.

My Aug. puts aren't looking to hot, but I still have faith in the Oct's SPYS and am trying to add to position now, but so far haven't been filled. I think Oct. will be just enough time for the weakness to creep back into the market.