Thursday, August 6, 2009

Commercial Foreclosures are on the way

Today I toured several commercial properties in Miami. All were recently foreclosed on, or about to be foreclosed. Soon these foreclosed properties, or what I like to call them "value bombs" will be all over the place and apt. units that were 70K per unit in 2006 will be 25K. I continue to think the commercial real estate disaster and deflating rents will take a couple years to fully play out, similar to residential real estate....My timing has certainly been off, as I anticipated commercial real estate to fall MUCH MUCH QUICKER, however, I remain confident that what lies ahead will be ugly. I don't take any particular gratitude in the doom in gloom predictions (I would much rather be flippn properties at 40K a pop). Its just what I see, and in commercial real estate it ain't pretty!!!!!

Still hanging in there on SPY puts. Market showed some weakness today, but same old thing at end of the day. The market just doesn't want to go down. Jobs report should be interesting in the morning.