Monday, March 2, 2009

Position Review

Today was nuts. S&P at 700, Dow at 6763 - Unbelievable.

I want to review all of my positions, as I have taken off many put positions last week and today, and now have 1/3 of my account with a bullish slant.

Let's review all of my current positions:

CALLS

IYR calls - I bought these today, and am currently at a loss. I have absolutely no faith in the future of commercial real estate, but I think this stock is oversold and am expecting a bounce soon. That's the play on this one. I need a bounce in the market, or this will be a losing position.

SPY calls - I added to this position throughout the day, and am currently at a loss. Again, I really don't have faith in this market, but I do anticipate a bounce in the S&P. I figured I would give it a shot around 700. This is a pretty large position, probably larger than it should be considering the market hasn't shown me even the slightest hint of strength (all though, as i write this, the S&P is trending up in after hours). I will watch this one closely, and if we break much below 700, I will have to take my loss.

IBB calls - I am currently at a loss in this position. The biotech sector has been destroyed in the past couple days in response to the new Obama budget. I anticipate this bouncing off of 60.

PUTS

FNF puts - This position has been dead money the past couple weeks, and I am currently at a small loss. The good news is that there has been some real weakness in FNF, and it finally closed below 17. It currently sits at 16.31, and closed below its 50 day ma. for only the 3rd time since November. I have June puts in FNF, so i am willing to wait for this one to breakdown materially.

CBRL puts - This position is currently my largest loser. However, I am optimistic that this stock will break down. I think it will have serious trouble pushing above its 200 day ma. at 22.50., even though it closed at 22.38.

KRE puts - This is a profitable position, and I will continue to hold. These puts expire in June, so I am in no rush to do anything. I will probably add to the position on any strength in the market.

AZO puts- Last but not least, tomorrow is earnings day for AZO!! My position will likely fluctuate greatly tomorrow depending on earnings and guidance. I hope this one turns out more my recent TRLG position, and not CBRL. Let's hope they disappoint the street!